Value Betting Explained Profitable Bets with xGoals and EV

If you’d bet against an undefeated team like the Panthers using your own foresight and they lost the big game, you’d have won big. We hope that our guide has explained what a value bet is and that you make a profit by identifying them the next time you place your wagers. The actual probability of value bets is often expressed in percentages. Calculating the chance and the value of the bet using the formulas above is key to finding bets of value which we’ll cover below. Being able to spot value opportunities allows the bettor to gain an edge over the long term. Online bookmakers are highly skilled at making predictions using extensive data on player form, past results, and statistics, which ensures their profitability.

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You give a conservative 60% chance that Team A will score more than 12.5 corners. Expected value is your average value over the course of multiple bets. If you see something as more likely than what the bookie’s odds imply, you have perhaps identified a value bet. The software not only shows the day’s value bets but also provides an estimation of their value, giving you the edge in your betting endeavours.

• Given the fact we do not know the exact probability of the outcome, all we can do is to give our best guess based on the knowledge we have.
• A bookmaker offering fair odds would have no edge and would pay out as much in winnings as they took in losing bets over time.
• A lot of success you find in employing these strategies is based on how sizable your bankroll is.
• In the long run, we would always end up losing our money due to the margin or commission they charge.
• In this article, we delve into the concept of value betting, exploring its intricacies, strategies, and how it can empower you to make informed decisions that lead to profitable outcomes.

With value betting, you only place a bet on the outcome with the overpriced (good value) odds, knowing that you are getting positive expected value. According to most experts, value betting is one of the most reliable strategies. The reliability of the strategy lies in its mathematically sound approach.

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Identifying value bets automatically takes all the manual hard work out of the equation. It involves using a specialised value betting software that finds all the value bets for you, as well as calculates the optimal stake you should use for each value bet top optimize bankroll growth. Identifying value bets manually means the bettor should look at the form of the team, the current lineup, weather conditions, likelihood of injuries and other factors that could affect the outcome. By doing this research and carefully analyzing the market, the bettor can identify when the odds are better than they should be and make a value bet.

The Champions League showcases decimal odds at their finest, with complex tournaments requiring clear payout calculations. When Barcelona shows 3.25 to win the tournament, bettors instantly understand that €100 wagered returns €325 total if successful. Understanding these differences matters because the global nature of modern sports means you’ll encounter various formats. A Champions League match might display decimal odds on Bet365, fractional odds on Paddy Power, and American odds on international platforms serving multiple markets. Tipsters who are keen on becoming experienced with Value Betting need to have a good knowledge of the game which is acquired by dedicated work and tenacious researching. Remember, value betting is a long-term game, and discipline, patience, and effective bankroll management are key to realizing consistent profits.

Flat betting or level betting is when you stake the same amount on every bet. There are two approaches to handling how much you should stake on each bet. Our calculator is based directly off of the calculator found on the Rebel Betting website. It assumes a per bet size of 1% of the initial investment, 3% profit per bet and the ability to place 80 bets per hour.

Successful value betting requires consistent application of this strategy, disciplined bankroll management, and a long-term perspective. It’s important to note that finding value bets can be challenging, as bookmakers set odds with a built-in margin, and timing is crucial due to market fluctuations. If you’re serious about sports betting, you’ve probably heard the term value betting. At Footen, our team of betting experts believes that understanding value betting is one of the most important steps toward long-term profitability. In this guide, we will explain how value betting works, why bookmakers sometimes offer incorrect odds, and how smart bettors can take advantage of it. Value betting occurs when you find odds higher than the game’s or competition’s potential outcome.

Of all the challenges a punter has to face on a daily basis, none is more difficult and time-consuming than identifying value bets. Everything else is relatively easy to grasp, given that you access reliable betting resources, but developing an eye for spotting value can take a while, or it may never happen. Some of those who profit from value betting have given fractional Kelly a chance, but only a few can abide by it. For this reason, we strongly suggest using a flat stake if the gap between the highest and lowest odds you commonly bet on is negligible.

The more frequently you turn over your bankroll in value betting, the more money you will make in profits. We recommend using value betting software to find bets purely because it accelerates the process of identifying value bets and reduces the scope for human error. Kelly betting is recommended where you are able to quickly calculate the expected value of each bet and are placing your bets at lower odds. Understanding how value bets can generate long term profits won’t help you much if you can’t consistently identify individual value bets in the first place. A punter placing 100 successive $1 bets on Heads would be expected to break even at the end of the process, as half their bets would lose, and the other half would win. Join a growing community of informed bettors who chase sharp insights, value picks, and never settle.

Analyzing the multiple odds throughout the week gives you a good idea of the parimatch big picture, how the lines shift, and where the money is going on either side of a bet. Once you pinpoint where teams or competitors are being undervalued or overvalued, you can find places to get good deals on the odds and increase your overall profit margin. To calculate the expected value, you would multiply each possible outcome by the likelihood of each outcome occurring.

A bookmaker is also a lot less likely to undervalue a mainstream market, meaning there is less value to be found in those. The most successful bettors are the ones that can remove emotion and operate solely through logic. Being able to mathematically determine odds and analyse data is hugely important, and it will help you spot value bets much easier.